The new trading week is expected to be eventful, particularly for the US dollar, which is finally receiving long-awaited data after the end of the government shutdown. Market attention will center on key inflation reports from the UK, the Eurozone, and Japan, along with crucial US labor market data, which will help traders gauge the overall health of the world’s largest economy. Additionally, speeches from Federal Reserve officials and the release of the FOMC Minutes may offer further insight into the Fed’s upcoming monetary policy direction.
Japan:
● 4:30 a.m. GMT: Industrial Production (Month-over-Month) (September). Actual figure: 2.6%; Forecast: 2.2%; Previous: -1.5%. Critical for the JPY! Industrial production rebounded stronger than expected after the prior decline, signaling improving momentum in the Japanese economy and offering potential support for the yen.
Canada:
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Headline CPI (Year-over-Year) (October). Previous: 2.8%; Forecast: 2.7%. Critical for the CAD! Higher-than-expected inflation may reinforce the Bank of Canada’s hawkish stance and bolster the Canadian dollar.
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Core CPI (Month-over-Month) (October). Previous: 0.2%. Critical for the CAD! Core inflation — a key gauge of underlying price pressures — remains crucial for assessing future monetary policy decisions.
United States:
● In the course of the day: Speeches by FOMC members Kashkari, Williams, and Waller. Critical for the USD! Remarks from FOMC officials can offer insight into the Fed’s upcoming policy trajectory and may influence dollar volatility throughout the session.
Australia:
● 12:30 a.m. GMT: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. Critical for the AUD! The RBA’s detailed meeting notes may highlight internal viewpoints and policy nuances, potentially shifting market expectations for future rate decisions and impacting the Australian dollar.
United States:
● 2:15 p.m. GMT: Industrial Production (Month-over-Month) (October). Previous: 0.1%. Critical for the USD! This is the first official update on US manufacturing performance since the shutdown and could reshape sentiment regarding the current strength of the economy.
Japan:
● 11:50 a.m. GMT: Seasonally Adjusted Trade Balance. Forecast: -0.13T; Previous: -0.31T. Critical for the JPY! A significantly better-than-expected trade balance supports the outlook for the Japanese economy and may lend strength to the yen.
United Kingdom:
● 7:00 a.m. GMT: CPI (Year-over-Year) (October). Forecast: 3.6%; Previous: 3.8%. Critical for the GBP! UK inflation continues to play a key role for the Bank of England. A softer-than-expected reading may reduce hawkish expectations and weigh on the pound.
Eurozone:
● 10:00 a.m. GMT: CPI (Year-over-Year) (October). Forecast: 2.2%; Previous: 2.1%. Critical for the EUR! Eurozone inflation remains central to the ECB’s policy outlook. Any deviation from expectations can quickly influence the euro’s direction.
United States:
● 3:30 p.m. GMT: Crude Oil Inventories. Previous: 6.413M. Critical for oil prices (Brent, WTI)! This weekly report routinely drives volatility in global energy markets.
● 7:00 p.m. GMT: FOMC Minutes. Critical for the USD! A detailed look into the most recent Fed meeting, the minutes may reveal internal disagreements and forward-looking policy considerations — often a catalyst for sharp USD moves.
United States:
Important data continues to arrive following the shutdown: After delays caused by the government shutdown, the market is now receiving a substantial batch of key indicators covering the labor market and the manufacturing sector:
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Average Hourly Earnings (Month-over-Month) (September). Previous: 0.3%. Critical for the USD! Wage growth is a crucial gauge of inflationary pressure and overall labor market strength.
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Continuing Jobless Claims. Forecast: 1,930K; Previous: 1,926K. Critical for the USD! Reflects the total number of individuals still receiving unemployment benefits — a key indicator of labor market stability.
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Initial Jobless Claims. Forecast: 223K; Previous: 218K. Critical for the USD! A weekly measure of new layoffs. Any deviation from expectations can trigger a sharp market reaction.
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Nonfarm Payrolls (September). Previous: 22K. Critical for the USD! One of the most influential reports on employment and economic momentum, strongly impacting USD movements and Fed policy expectations.
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (November). Forecast: -1.4; Previous: -12.8. Critical for the USD! A significant improvement in manufacturing activity (though still negative) may signal sector recovery and offer support to the dollar.
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Unemployment Rate (September). Previous: 4.3%. Critical for the USD! A core indicator of economic health and labor market conditions.
● 3:00 p.m. GMT: Existing Home Sales (October). Forecast: 4.06M; Previous: 4.06M. Critical for the USD! A key measure of housing market activity, offering insight into consumer confidence and broader economic conditions.
Japan:
● 11:30 p.m. GMT: National Core CPI (Year-over-Year) (October). Forecast: 3.0%; Previous: 2.9%. Critical for the JPY! Stronger-than-expected inflation could increase pressure on the Bank of Japan to tighten policy and may support the yen.
United Kingdom:
● 7:00 a.m. GMT: Core Retail Sales (Month-over-Month) (October). Previous: 0.6%. Critical for the GBP! A key measure of consumer activity directly influencing economic growth expectations.
Canada:
● 1:30 p.m. GMT: Core Retail Sales (Month-over-Month) (September). Forecast: -0.3%; Previous: 0.7%. Critical for the CAD! A sharp downside surprise may weaken the Canadian dollar and soften hawkish expectations for the Bank of Canada.
United States:
● 2:45 p.m. GMT: Manufacturing PMI (November). Previous: 52.5. Critical for the USD! A leading indicator of the US manufacturing sector's health and overall economic activity.
● 2:45 p.m. GMT: Services PMI (November). Previous: 54.8. Critical for the USD! A key gauge of business activity in the largest segment of the US economy.
276