The EUR/USD pair is trading ahead of a key trigger, namely the release of US inflation data, which will determine the next balance of power between the dollar and the euro.
Possible technical scenarios:
Judging by the daily chart, EUR/USD has pulled back from resistance at 1.1788 and consolidated below the local dotted level at 1.1682, which opens the way toward the next target at 1.1494.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
Fundamentally, the dollar received short-term support from hawkish comments by New York Fed President John Williams. His remarks reduced concerns about the Fed’s independence and confirmed that part of the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates.
This prompted a reassessment of market expectations: the probability of a Fed rate cut in March declined noticeably, which is restraining the rise of EUR/USD.
Meanwhile, risks for the dollar have not fully disappeared. Political pressure on the Fed from the US administration continues to undermine confidence in institutions, and rating agencies directly point to the importance of central bank independence for the country’s credit profile.
Against this backdrop, strong inflation (CPI) data could strengthen the dollar and restore pressure on the pair, while any signs of disinflation would again shift the market’s focus toward a weaker USD and support for EUR/USD.
Intraday technical picture:
As we can see on the 4H chart, a downtrend has formed within the 1.1494–1.1788 corridor, creating the preconditions for a further gradual decline in price.
The pound sterling continues to strengthen against the US dollar as overall risk sentiment improves.
Possible technical scenarios:
The daily chart shows that GBP/USD continues to trade the mirror support level at 1.3436. If it holds, this would create the preconditions for growth toward the January highs and the 1.3630 target.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
The British currency has been supported by moderate inflation dynamics in the UK and expectations of a gradual rate-cut path by the Bank of England in 2026. Investors are keeping their eyes open for GDP and industrial production data to assess the state of the economy.
The US dollar remains under pressure due to doubts about the Federal Reserve’s independence. A criminal investigation has been launched against Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, increasing concerns that political factors could have an impact on rate decisions. Some Fed officials view inflation as too high and call for tighter price control, while others downplay the risks, pointing to moderate threats to employment. This creates uncertainty around the regulator’s next steps and limits demand for the dollar.
In the coming days, market focus will be on US inflation and retail sales data. These indicators will be key reference points for the Fed and could strongly affect GBP/USD dynamics. The UK economy, meanwhile, looks relatively stable, which supports the pound amid uncertainty around the dollar.
Intraday technical picture:
According to the 4H chart, price has returned to the 1.3436–1.3630 corridor, where a move higher is technically possible, at least toward the January highs.
The Japanese yen continues to lose ground versus the US dollar amid political and macroeconomic uncertainty.
Possible technical scenarios:
Given the unfolding scenario on the daily chart, USD/JPY is testing resistance at 158.93. If this level gets broken out, the next upside target will be 161.98. An alternative scenario would be a pullback toward support at 156.71.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
Yen weakness is intensifying after reports that Prime Minister of Japan Sanae Takaichi may call an early election, increasing the likelihood of additional fiscal stimulus. Pressure is also being driven by a diplomatic dispute with China and uncertainty over the timing of the Bank of Japan’s next rate hike, which reduces demand for the yen as a safe-haven currency.
The Bank of Japan is maintaining a moderately hawkish tone, keeping the door open for further rate increases, but investors remain unsure about the timeline for normalization. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned of limited tolerance for a sharp yen decline, which may imply verbal intervention from authorities.
Pressure on the dollar persists due to doubts about the Fed’s independence triggered by the investigation involving Jerome Powell. This is limiting USD/JPY upside, while investors continue to monitor the upcoming US inflation report, which could provide fresh guidance for Fed policy and short-term direction for the pair.
Intraday technical picture:
As evidenced by the 4H chart, USD/JPY is holding below resistance at 158.93, and it remains unclear whether the pair will retest this level. The US dollar’s reaction to the inflation report will likely help determine price behavior around this horizontal level.
USD/CAD remains in a narrow range below the psychologically significant 1.3900 level ahead of the release of US inflation data.
Possible technical scenarios:
On the daily chart, USD/CAD has consolidated above 1.3861, which opens the way for growth toward 1.4013.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
The US dollar has received moderate support, but further strengthening is limited by persistent doubts about the Federal Reserve’s independence. The Canadian dollar remains in demand amid rising oil prices, which is putting pressure on the pair.
Fundamentally, the market remains balanced. Today, investor focus is on US CPI data, which will be the key factor in assessing the direction of Fed monetary policy. Inflation is expected to remain above the Fed’s target, which could affect expectations around future rate adjustments.
Supportive drivers for the Canadian dollar remain in place. Higher oil prices support Canada’s economy and strengthen CAD, given the currency’s close linkage to the commodities sector. At the same time, geopolitical risks and uncertainty surrounding Fed policy are creating mixed dynamics, which, for now, are keeping USD/CAD from making sharp moves.
Intraday technical picture:
The situation on the 4H chart suggests that consolidation above 1.3861 creates the preconditions for further strengthening toward the 1.3861 target, but the reaction to US news or oil price moves in response to fresh geopolitical shocks could lead to another test of 1.3861.
Gold is trading near a new all-time high, supported by geopolitical tensions and expectations of monetary easing in the US.
Possible technical scenarios:
Based on the unfolding scenario on the daily chart, gold set a new all-time high on January 12 at 4630.26 per ounce. The price has now pulled back from resistance at 4635.63, and the downward correction may extend to support at 4375.25. That being said, if the tense fundamental backdrop persists, a retest of the all-time high is possible, followed by growth toward the next medium-term target at 4939.80.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
Investors are cautious ahead of the release of US CPI data, which is limiting the precious metal’s short-term upside. A firmer dollar on the back of comments from some Fed officials is acting as a near-term restraining factor.
From a fundamental standpoint, expectations of Fed rate cuts later this year continue to support the market. Today’s CPI figures will be the key benchmark for assessing the regulator’s next steps. If inflation comes in above expectations, pressure on the dollar could increase, creating additional support for gold.
Geopolitical risks remain a key driver. The escalation of Russia’s military actions against Ukraine and US threats regarding trade with Iran are supporting demand for safe-haven assets. Against a backdrop of lower rates and elevated uncertainty, gold remains attractive as a defensive instrument.
Intraday technical picture:
According to the 4H chart, gold has pulled back from resistance at 4635.63, and the correction depth within the 4375.25–4635.63 range will depend on fundamental drivers.
Oil prices continue to rise amid growing geopolitical risks tied to instability in Iran, which is creating a significant risk premium for Brent and outweighing expectations of increased supply from Venezuela.
Possible technical scenarios:
As it appears from the picture on the daily chart, Brent’s downtrend has been broken, the price has consolidated above 63.23, and it is approaching resistance at 65.02. If the tense fundamental backdrop persists and price consolidates above 65.02, the market will have room to move toward the 66.51 target.
Fundamental drivers of volatility:
Iran is witnessing the largest anti-government protests in recent years, accompanied by a harsh crackdown by authorities. These developments spark concerns about possible disruptions to the country’s oil exports, especially through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. Barclays analysts estimate the added geopolitical premium for oil at $3–4 per barrel, keeping Brent supported near its highest levels since mid-November.
Additional pressure is coming from US actions, including threats to impose 25% tariffs on trade with Iran, which could affect exports of Iranian oil to China. At the same time, the market is factoring in the potential resumption of Venezuelan supplies following a change of power, but this remains a limited influence on prices given uncertainty around volumes and timelines.
Current price dynamics are being driven by supply-side risks outweighing expectations of additional barrels. Geopolitical tensions around Iran and Venezuela are providing short-term support, while longer-term supply-demand balance expectations remain under pressure from structural factors, including weak global demand and the potential for increased production elsewhere.
Intraday technical picture:
As we can see on the 4H chart, there is still room for the price to move higher toward resistance within the 63.23–65.02 range, while the next direction will depend on whether 65.02 holds.
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