This week, the global economy took center stage: from falling retail sales in the United Kingdom and China — hinting at a possible slowdown — to a surprise GDP boost in the UK and Japan, which supported their national currencies. In the United States, the picture was mixed: PPI inflation surged sharply, raising doubts about the Fed’s next moves, while the labor market stayed stable.
United Kingdom:
● BRC Retail Sales (Year-over-Year) (July). Actual figure: 1.8% / Forecast: 2.1% / Previous: 2.7%. The slowdown may signal weaker consumer demand.
Australia:
● Interest rate decision (August). Actual figure: 3.6% / Forecast: 3.60% / Previous: 3.85%. The policy easing put pressure on the Aussie, pushing AUD/USD down over 50 points in a few days.
Eurozone:
●ZEW Economic Sentiment Index (August). Actual figure: 25.1 / Forecast: 28.1 / Previous: 36.1. The sharp drop suggests worsening sentiment in the Eurozone economy.
USA:
● Core CPI (Month-over-Month) (July). Actual figure: 0.3% / Forecast: 0.3% / Previous: 0.2%.
Germany:
● CPI (Month-over-Month) (July). Actual figure: 0.3% / Forecast: 0.3% / Previous: 0.3%.
United States:
●Crude Oil Inventories. Actual: 3.036M / Forecast: -0.900M / Previous: -3.029M. The increase in inventories had a bearish impact on the oil market.
United Kingdom:
● GDP (q/q) (Q2). Actual figure: 0.3% / Forecast: 0.1% / Previous: 0.7%. GDP (Year-over-Year) (Q2). Actual: 1.2% / Forecast: 1.0% / Previous: 1.3%. The upbeat data revived a fading bullish trend in the GBP/USD currency pair.
United States:
●Initial jobless claims. Actual figure: 224K / Forecast: 225K / Previous: 226K. Fewer claims point to a stronger labor market.
●PPI (Month-over-Month) (July). Actual figure: 0.9% / Forecast: 0.2% / Previous: 0.0%. The sharp rise in inflation dampened expectations of a September Fed rate cut, though odds still remain above 90%.
Japan:
● GDP (Quarter-over-Quarter) (Q2). Actual figure: 0.3% / Forecast: 0.1% / Previous: 0.0%. The better-than-expected data boosted the JPY.
China:
● China Industrial Production YTD (Year-over-Year) (July). Actual figure: 5.7% / Previous: 6.4%. The numbers point to some slowdown in China’s economy.
United States:
● Core Retail Sales (Month-over-Month) (July). Actual figure: 0.3% / Forecast: 0.3% / Previous: 0.5%. A drop could signal weaker consumer demand.
Canada:
● Wholesale Sales (Month-over-Month) (June). Actual figure: 0.7% / Forecast: 0.7% / Previous: 0.1%. Although the growth matched the forecast, this indicator did not affect the USD/CAD dynamic, and the Canadian dollar continues to weaken.
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