The last trading week of August was filled with crucial macroeconomic data. Key reports included personal consumption expenditure and durable goods orders in the United States. Additionally, important GDP figures were released in Canada, Germany, the eurozone, and the United States.
Monday kicked off with the release of the IFO Business Climate Index in Germany. In August, the index dropped to 86.6 from 87.0 in July, slightly above the market's forecast of 86.0. The Current Economic Assessment Index also decreased to 86.5 from 87.1 in July, matching analysts' expectations. Meanwhile, the IFO Expectations Index, which reflects companies' outlooks for the next six months, declined to 86.8 from 87.0 in July but exceeded the expected 86.5.
On the same day, the United States Census Bureau reported that July's durable goods orders significantly outperformed analysts' expectations, increasing by 9.9% to $289.6 billion. This rise followed a -6.9% decrease in June and was well above the anticipated 4% growth. However, when excluding the transportation sector, core durable goods orders fell by -0.2%, which was below the expected 0.00%, indicating a potential slowdown in manufacturing activity and putting pressure on the dollar.
On Tuesday, the Conference Board’s consumer sentiment index in the US climbed to 103.3, surpassing the forecast of 100.9. Additionally, the June data was revised upward from 100.3 to 101.9.
In Germany, the annual consumer price index (CPI) increased by 1.9% in August, which was below the expected 2.1% and down from 2.3% in July. The month-over-month inflation dropped by 0.1%, compared to the forecasted 0.0% and 0.3% in July. The harmonized index of consumer prices also showed a 2.0% rise over the past year, falling short of the 2.3% forecast and the previous 2.6%.
On Thursday, revised data revealed that the U.S. economy expanded year-over-year by 3.0% in the second quarter, exceeding both the previous estimate of 2.8% and the consensus forecast of 2.8%.
Simultaneously, the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 24 dropped to 231,000, slightly better than the expected 232,000.
Friday delivered updates from the German labor market, where the change in the number of unemployed was just 2,000, significantly better than the forecasted 17,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 6.0%, as anticipated.
In the eurozone, inflation dropped to its lowest level in three years, decreasing from 2.6% to 2.2%, aligning with experts' predictions. These figures bolster expectations of a potential ECB interest rate cut in September.
Additionally, during the American session on Friday, data on personal consumption expenditure in the US and a GDP report from Canada were set to be released.
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